Vulnerability of Indigenous Heritage Sites to Changing Sea Levels: Piloting a GIS-Based Approach in the Illawarra, New South Wales, Australia

Climate change and sea level rise are expected to exacerbate existing coastal hazards such as erosion and inundation. As a result many coastal heritage sites around the world are expected to be put at potential risk of damage or destruction. The likely susceptibility of Australia's Indigenous coastal heritage sites to these hazards is widely recognised but the sensitivity has not been quantified or analysed in detail. In order to assess the sensitivity of Indigenous coastal heritage sites, coastal indices of sensitivity and vulnerability were adapted to be used in a heritage context with a pilot study undertaken focused on the coastal Illawarra region of southern New South Wales, Australia. Desk based regional models were produced within the ArcGIS program for coastal shorelines in the region with underlying landform sensitivity used as a proxy for heritage site sensitivity. The relative effectiveness of the desk based modelling approach was also examined by ground-truthing of a number of sites analysed in the coastal site sensitivity index. Desk based regional modelling is shown to be a useful tool for planning and conservation management, particularly in directing resources to sites of the highest risk, and informing the direction of more in depth studies into the hazards faced by coastal Indigenous heritage sites.