The Impact of the Deregulation of Retail Hours on Shopping Trip Patterns in a Mall Hierarchy: An application of the RASTT model to the Sydney Project (1980-1998) and the global vacant shop problem

The impact of the deregulation of trading hours on trips to planned shopping centres is studied using the retail aggregate space-time trip (RASTT) model, where changes in consumer spatial behaviour are analysed at three malls in seven year periods (1980/82, 1988/89, 1996/98) in Sydney, Australia (The Sydney Project). After effective deregulation in 1992, the subsequent repeat samples in a hierarchy of shopping malls show significant structural change in only the afternoon samples at community and regional planned shopping centres. The results show a substantial increase in the attractiveness of planned shopping centres over traditional retail centres, where less consumers are shopping locally. There was a shift in spatial demand towards Sunday for 'small centre' behaviour and the appearance of high frequency regular trips to the regional planned centre. The RASTT model suggests that these changes in the structure of consumer behaviour are a result of moving the time boundary to seven days-a-week shopping at these centres. These structural changes may account for the on-going long term vacant shop problem that has manifested itself under shopping hour liberalisation in south east Australian, British and Canadian traditional retail hierarchies in the 1990s.