The Devil in the Detail: A Review of a Long‐Running Australian Predator Management Program

Introduction: The control of the invasive red fox (Vulpes vulpes) at Booderee National Park (BNP) is one of Australia's longest running predator management programs. A prevailing narrative is that a large and sustained reduction of fox abundance at BNP has triggered complex ecological cascades.

Aim: To critically assess the strength of the evidence base underpinning the prevailing narrative of a large and sustained reduction in fox abundance at BNP.

Methods: We collated and reviewed the existing data on fox abundance at BNP.

Results: An overlooked methodological change has inflated the perceived ongoing suppression of fox abundance at BNP. Data indicating a reduction in fox abundance are constrained to the first half of the program (i.e., 1999–2011) and remain uncertain in terms of fox population size and/or impact.

Discussion: Evidence of sustained fox abundance reduction at BNP is not as robust as previously thought. We discuss the implications of this new perspective on research and management efforts at BNP. In doing so, we are not suggesting that fox control has been ineffective at BNP, we are highlighting the need to bolster our understanding of fox population size and impact, and the effectiveness of control operations with robust data.

Conclusion: Data biases can influence the perceived effectiveness of long-term management programs, and hence our capacity for adaptive management. We emphasise the importance of consistency in the design and practice of data collection, and the value of periodic review of long-term conservation management efforts.