Rates of Adoption: The Diffusion of Agricultural Innovations

Predicting and estimating the extent and rate of adoption is central to assessing the benefits to be had from research into agricultural innovations and evaluating the success of marketing and extension programs. Predicting rates of adoption, and how they might be influenced, requires an in-depth, detailed understanding of the adoption process. The bulk of research into the adoption of innovations by farmers treats the process as a black box, seldom even recognising Rogers' suggested stages of the innovation-decision process. The mainstream diffusion models maintain this black box approach; reflecting little of the findings from research into adoption processes. Much more is known about purchase decision making than the black box approach to adoption and diffusion reflects and this report accesses this knowledge. The question arises then, as to how to best characterise the adoption process of farmers. Like consumers, but unlike larger organisations, farmers are unlikely to possess professional purchasing skills. They are likely to be influenced by salient personality traits in their adoption decision-making. Like organisations, but unlike consumers, farmers consider innovations in the context of clear production systems, with well-defined costs, and well-specified output objectives. Meaningful models of diffusion, that is, rates of adoption, seem likely to need to draw on both consumer and organisational adoption theories.