How Financial Resilience Shapes Social and Public Health Policy Choices in Africa: Empirical Insights from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objective: Scant evidence exists indicating how governments in African countries consider the economic vulnerability of their populations when instituting initial social control policies. This study examined possible clusters of financial resilience among African countries and how these clusters predicted the length of social control policies. Method: We harmonized country-level financial resilience data from the World Bank 2019 Global Findex database, data on COVID-19 cases from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, and social control data from government press releases. We used multivariate cluster analysis and geographically weighted regression to assess the level of savings, domestic remittance, self-employment, wages, emergency funds, and agricultural income—all predictors of financial resilience. Results: We found two profiles of financial resilience: 41% of countries were financially resilient, and 59% were not. We also found that financial resilience profiles predicted longer durations of initial social control policies but in varying directions and degrees depending on the country. Conclusion: The study sheds light on the heterogeneity of financial resilience among African countries and extends our knowledge of financial resilience vis-a-vis pandemic responses. Social protection programs must be developed and implemented to help populations cope during and after the pandemic.