Counterurbanisation in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic in New South Wales, 2016-21

In the context of a secular decline in internal migration across more developed nations, this paper examines the degree of counterurbanisation in New South Wales – Australia’s most populous state – for 2016-21, a period that included the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a nuanced demarcation of ‘metropolitan’ and ‘non-metropolitan’, the paper investigates how genuinely counter-urban and pro-rural these movements are. The paper also explores the role of rural amenity as a ‘pull’ factor on city populations, using the most influential elements of the rural environment that best predict in-, out-migration and net-migration flows as separate measures rather than combine them into an index of composite variables. The results suggest that counterurbanisation exists as a particular migration current in NSW, though the spatial patterning of in- and net migration rates suggests that exurbanisation and displaced urbanisation more accurately describe and explain the vast majority of moves. Relatively high in- and net migration rates recorded in the most remote local government areas also suggest an element of anti-urbanisation, perhaps in response to the COVID-19 public health measures. Spatial regression modelling of selected amenity indicators against in-, out- and net migration produced high coefficients (Spearman’s rho) for the in- and out-migration models, while the net migration model registered coefficients about half the size of the other two models. Two indicators – median slope and tourism employment – were strong and statistically significant influences over the in- and net migration models, and in the direction hypothesised. These results suggest that counterurbanisation is substantially influenced by the presence of landscapes of varied relief and with some tourism attraction potential.