Can salivary testosterone and cortisol reactivity to a mid-week stress test discriminate a match outcome during international rugby union competition?

Objectives: Evidence suggests that stress-induced changes in testosterone and cortisol are related to future competitive behaviours and team-sport outcomes. Therefore, we examined whether salivary testosterone and cortisol reactivity to a mid-week stress test can discriminate a match outcome in international rugby union competition.

Design: Single group, quasi-experimental design with repeated measures.

Method: Thirty-three male rugby players completed a standardised stress test three or four days before seven international matches. Stress testing involved seven minutes of shuttle runs (2 ×20 m), dispersed across one-minute stages with increasing speeds. Salivary testosterone and cortisol were measured in the morning, along with delta changes from morning to pre-test (Morn-Pre Δ) and pre-test to post-test (Pre-Post Δ). Data were compared across wins (n = 3) and losses (n = 4).

Results: The Morn-Pre Δ in cortisol increased before winning and decreased prior to losing (p < 0.001), with a large effect size difference (d = 1.6, 90% CI 1.3–1.9). Testosterone decreased significantly across the same period, irrespective of the match outcome. The Morn-Pre Δ in testosterone and cortisol, plus the Pre-Post Δ in testosterone, all predicted a match outcome (p ≤ 0.01). The final model showed good diagnostic accuracy (72%) with cortisol as the main contributor.

Conclusions: The salivary testosterone and cortisol responses to mid-week testing showed an ability to discriminate a rugby match outcome over a limited number of games. The Morn-Pre Δ in cortisol was the strongest diagnostic biomarker. This model may provide a unique format to assess team readiness or recovery between competitions, especially with the emergence of rapid hormonal testing.