An approach to Predicting Demand for an Agricultural Innovation

Historically research about diffusion has largely been focused on rates of adoption and explanations for them. This is a matter of secondary importance, arguably, to the question of the likely total level of adoption. In the case of agricultural innovations total adoption can be expected to be strongly correlated to the value attributed to the innovation by those producers for whom it is relevant. In this paper a model is presented which frames the components of the farm management context that substantially determine the valuation of innovations. This model has been developed over two decades of research into potential adoption.