Agent-based Modeling of Migration Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Automated Calibration Using a Genetic Algorithm

Hung Khanh Nguyen; Raymond Chiong; Manuel Chica; Richard H Middleton; Sandeep Dhakal

doi:10.1109/CEC.2019.8790008

Agent-based Modeling of Migration Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Automated Calibration Using a Genetic Algorithm

Hung Khanh Nguyen
, Raymond Chiong
, Manuel Chica
, Richard H Middleton
, Sandeep Dhakal

School of Science & Technology

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Migration is one of the many responses humans and societies make to ongoing demographic, economic, societal and environmental changes. In this work, we use agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the dynamics of migration flows across provinces and cities in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The strength of ABM is that it allows a bottom-up approach that focuses on how individuals make decisions in a complex system comprising various factors. Outputs of our agent-based model are automatically calibrated with actual data using a genetic algorithm. This automated calibration yields some significant improvement in the results, with all observed net- and out-migration data captured within the 95% confidence interval. Sensitivity analysis carried out helps to further understand the impact of critical factors on the final migration decision.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2019 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, CEC 2019 - Proceedings
Place of Publication	United States of America
Publisher	IEEE
Pages	3372-3379
ISBN (Print)	9781728121536, 9781728121529
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/CEC.2019.8790008
Publication status	Published - 2019
Event	IEEE CEC 2019: Congress on Evolutionary Computation - Wellington, New Zealand Duration: 10 Jun 2019 → 13 Jun 2019

Conference

Conference	IEEE CEC 2019: Congress on Evolutionary Computation
Country/Territory	New Zealand
City	Wellington
Period	10/06/19 → 13/06/19

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10.1109/CEC.2019.8790008

https://hdl.handle.net/1959.11/61425

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@inproceedings{8ce6b41760f44a83b74278db274db48c,

title = "Agent-based Modeling of Migration Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Automated Calibration Using a Genetic Algorithm",

abstract = "Migration is one of the many responses humans and societies make to ongoing demographic, economic, societal and environmental changes. In this work, we use agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the dynamics of migration flows across provinces and cities in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The strength of ABM is that it allows a bottom-up approach that focuses on how individuals make decisions in a complex system comprising various factors. Outputs of our agent-based model are automatically calibrated with actual data using a genetic algorithm. This automated calibration yields some significant improvement in the results, with all observed net- and out-migration data captured within the 95\% confidence interval. Sensitivity analysis carried out helps to further understand the impact of critical factors on the final migration decision.",

author = "Nguyen, \{Hung Khanh\} and Raymond Chiong and Manuel Chica and Middleton, \{Richard H\} and Sandeep Dhakal",

year = "2019",

doi = "10.1109/CEC.2019.8790008",

language = "English",

isbn = "9781728121536",

pages = "3372--3379",

booktitle = "2019 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, CEC 2019 - Proceedings",

publisher = "IEEE",

note = "IEEE CEC 2019: Congress on Evolutionary Computation ; Conference date: 10-06-2019 Through 13-06-2019",

}

Nguyen, HK, Chiong, R, Chica, M, Middleton, RH & Dhakal, S 2019, Agent-based Modeling of Migration Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Automated Calibration Using a Genetic Algorithm. in 2019 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, CEC 2019 - Proceedings. IEEE, United States of America, pp. 3372-3379, IEEE CEC 2019: Congress on Evolutionary Computation, Wellington, New Zealand, 10/06/19. https://doi.org/10.1109/CEC.2019.8790008

Agent-based Modeling of Migration Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Automated Calibration Using a Genetic Algorithm. / Nguyen, Hung Khanh; Chiong, Raymond; Chica, Manuel et al.
2019 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, CEC 2019 - Proceedings. United States of America: IEEE, 2019. p. 3372-3379.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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T1 - Agent-based Modeling of Migration Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

T2 - IEEE CEC 2019: Congress on Evolutionary Computation

AU - Nguyen, Hung Khanh

AU - Chiong, Raymond

AU - Chica, Manuel

AU - Middleton, Richard H

AU - Dhakal, Sandeep

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Migration is one of the many responses humans and societies make to ongoing demographic, economic, societal and environmental changes. In this work, we use agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the dynamics of migration flows across provinces and cities in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The strength of ABM is that it allows a bottom-up approach that focuses on how individuals make decisions in a complex system comprising various factors. Outputs of our agent-based model are automatically calibrated with actual data using a genetic algorithm. This automated calibration yields some significant improvement in the results, with all observed net- and out-migration data captured within the 95% confidence interval. Sensitivity analysis carried out helps to further understand the impact of critical factors on the final migration decision.

AB - Migration is one of the many responses humans and societies make to ongoing demographic, economic, societal and environmental changes. In this work, we use agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the dynamics of migration flows across provinces and cities in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The strength of ABM is that it allows a bottom-up approach that focuses on how individuals make decisions in a complex system comprising various factors. Outputs of our agent-based model are automatically calibrated with actual data using a genetic algorithm. This automated calibration yields some significant improvement in the results, with all observed net- and out-migration data captured within the 95% confidence interval. Sensitivity analysis carried out helps to further understand the impact of critical factors on the final migration decision.

U2 - 10.1109/CEC.2019.8790008

DO - 10.1109/CEC.2019.8790008

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 9781728121536

SN - 9781728121529

SP - 3372

EP - 3379

BT - 2019 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, CEC 2019 - Proceedings

PB - IEEE

CY - United States of America

Y2 - 10 June 2019 through 13 June 2019

ER -

Agent-based Modeling of Migration Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Automated Calibration Using a Genetic Algorithm

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