A review of the evidence for a human role in the extinction of Australian megafauna and an alternative interpretation

Arguments that megafaunal extinctions in Australia were anthropogenically mediated have focused on establishing terminal appearance ages. This approach has been underpinned by three principle tenets: (1) if megafauna disappeared before significant climate change, but after human colonisation, then it can be inferred that extinctions were human mediated; (2) climate change within the last glacial cycle was unremarkable relative to previous cycles; and (3) all or most Pleistocene megafauna were present when people arrived on the continent. We review the evidence for human causation and note mounting evidence suggesting that the last 400-300 ka in Australia has been characterised by escalating aridity and climatic variability, culminating in the breach of a hydrological threshold within the last glacial cycle. Only 21 species (35%) of megafauna whose disappearance has been attributed to human activity are known to have persisted after the Penultimate Glacial Maximum, a time of undoubtedly severe climate change. Thus, 39 species of megafauna (65%) cannot be reliably placed within 85,000 years of firm evidence for human arrival, ca 50-43 ka. At most eight species (13%) were clearly present at this time. Four or more persisted until the onset of full glacial conditions at ca 30 ka. We argue for a falsifiable model of staggered extinction in which most megafaunal extinctions predated human arrival and with the influence of people as a minor superimposition on broader trends in train since middle Pleistocene times.