A Bayesian Approach to Assessing Regional Climate Change Pressures on Natural Resource Conditions in the Central West of NSW, Australia

Climate change is now being acknowledged in environmental planning strategies in Australia. However, there are still difficulties in linking strategic level responses to climate change with local impacts. To date, only limited research has been conducted in predicting the effects climate change may have on meeting natural resource condition targets at regional and local levels. Recently, Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) have been developed by Catchment Management Authorities in NSW. These identify a range of natural resource management targets that are seen as achievable within the next ten years. However, the implications of climate change in meeting these targets have not yet been considered by the CMAs. In this paper, we describe a modelling approach that we have used to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) for the Central West Catchment Management Authority (CMA) in NSW. The DSS will assist the Central West Catchment Management Authority (CMA) of NSW in assessing the likelihood of meeting their existing natural resource condition targets in the context of several climate change scenarios. CAP targets in the Central West region of NSW refer to both water dependent agricultural systems and high value ecological assets that are susceptible to climate change.